I Stand By My “One-Term President” Prediction
Back in August, 2008, I wrote an essay titled Voting For a One-Term President. At the time we didn’t know whether Barack Obama or John McCain would be our next president. My contention was that we had so many contentious problems that neither contender could successfully contend with all of them.
I haven’t changed my mind. I don’t think Barack Obama will be re-elected in 2012. But I suspect this would be true if John McCain or Hillary Clinton or Mike Huckabee or Ralph the Wonder Dog had become president instead of Obama.
Our country’s problems are too severe, and have been building far too long, for any one person to solve in four years. Indeed, I don’t believe they can be solved within four decades unless a majority of elected officials from both major political parties decide to work together instead of playing stupid “gotya” games with each other all the time. Yes, I know your political party is straight and clean and tells the truth, and that the other one is full of corrupt liars. Well, too damn bad. You’d better figure out a way to work with those corrupt liars whose policies are (in your opinion) sure to ruin our country.
But you — and most of our political leaders — are not going to start doing that by 2012 unless we get attacked by space aliens or a major plague kills off 60% of our population or we have some other equivalent disaster. So I don’t expect Obama to be re-elected in 2012.
I have no idea whether his replacement will be a Republican, a Democrat or someone nominated by a political party that hasn’t formed yet. I have no idea whether our next president will be a “liberal” or “conservative” or “libertarian” or “socialist.” A lot will depend on what happens to the economy between now and then.
And, you know, it’s even barely possibly that enough people will be back to work by 2012 that Obama will be re-elected. But I’m not holding my breath waiting for that to happen. And if you are, I strongly recommend that you resume breathing, because you have no more idea than I have what will happen in the world (and in American politics) between now and then.