I believe the economic prediction economy has recovered and is now quite healthy. Indeed, here in Florida economists never really felt a recession. If anything, the recession created a greater market for them than ever, since local news media here have been running, “Economist says real estate has bottomed, now is the time to buy,” stories at least once a month since real estate prices started to drop in 2005.

Not being an economist, I drive down Tamiami Trail, the main drag through Sarasota and Bradenton, and I see more vacant commercial buildings and shut-down businesses than I did two, three or five years ago. I see more people begging in market parking lots, none of whom seem to be economists. And none of the shut-down businesses were in the economics line. They were restaurants, bars, retail stores, and car lots. Maybe if they had sold economics (TODAY ONLY! 30% OFF ALL FRIEDRICH von HAYEK QUOTATIONS!) instead of booze or furniture or used cars, they would still be going concerns today.

And today, Sunshine Pack ‘n Ship became another shuttered storefront without making a dent in official unemployment statistics or putting any economists out of work. My wife’s friend Terri has now officially lost her business, and has shut off her home phone because of all the bill collectors’ calls.

Thinking of which, I always ask the bill collectors who call me if they have any openings. Yes, they always say. Their business seems to be doing well these days. Unfortunately, most of the collection jobs seem to be in Costa Rica and India, with a few in Maine, Texas, and Idaho.

Maybe one day things will get bad enough that we’ll load up the old flivver, put grandma Joad in her rocking chair on top, and head on out for the Land of Milk and Honey we’re sure to find in Bangalore.

And maybe not.

Luckily, Florida will soon (using the Florida government definition of the word “soon”) start building a high-speed rail line from Tampa to Orlando. Our Republican elected crowd, all of whom hate deficit spending, heartily back this multi-billion dollar boondoggle. Or maybe they love fiscal responsibility Monday, Wednesday and Friday, and love “stimulus payments” Tuesdays, Thursdays and Saturdays — and take Sunday off to atone for their sins before starting the cycle over again on Monday.

Yep. For real. Over and over, I’ve heard Florida Republicans ranging from Gov. Charlie Crist to Manatee County Commissioner Donna Hayes talk glowingly about how we will all benefit from high-speed rail and all the thousands of jobs it will create. Crist, you can understand. But Hayes? Manatee County is an hour’s drive from the nearest projected high-speed rail station. I have trouble seeing how it’s going to be more of a boon than a doggle down here. Maybe if I was a Republican and had access to the Secret Teabag Mysteries I would understand.

Meanwhile, up in Baltimore, stepson Dominique has lost his job, lost his rented room, and doesn’t have $1800 in repair money to get his car through its mandatory state safety inspection. I suppose he’ll crash on a couch in the house his sister Tina takes care of for their 95-year-old great-aunt Pauline, which seems to get more crowded every month. My wife Debbie’s sister Paula and her husband Charles tried to move in, too, but Tina sensibly was not going to have them around. Paula and Charles are both out of work, but they’ve been out of work through most of three presidential administrations now, so please don’t blame their indigence on Obama. Or, for that matter, on Bush or Clinton.

If Paula and Charles had more brains and initiative, they might become criminals, but they’ve even failed at that. If we had work farms for the poor (an idea I am not overly against), they would probably be in one, constantly bitching about the food and the quarters and the lack of TV channels. Or something.

Anyway, in between Paula and Charles and John McCain’s $5 million entry-level rich, you have several hundred million Americans, of whom I’d guess at least 20% are either unemployed or working at scut jobs even though they’re trained and qualified for decent employment. Call me a cynic or whatever else you like, but I pretty much figure government unemployment figures tell about half of the story. Sure, it’s all nice and heart-heating to read stories like the one in a Tampa paper last week about the former six-figure executive who is happy to be contributing to his family with his $7.25/hour part-time bagboy job at the Publix supermarket. But if this guy seriously has the talent and chops to have been a big-timer, isn’t the other half of his story a non-statistical one: that America is wasting his ability? Can’t we think of anything better for him to do? Is the invisible hand of the marketplace really that stupid?

Or, is it possible that Mr. Bagboy was never worth six figures in the first place? Is it possible that his real value, without minimum wage laws, is $4 per hour or even less? Since he’s not an economist, and Florida has people of all skill and education levels frantically trying to grab onto any job they can, this may be the case.

This is the non-economist economy in which I live.

One thing about the Florida ordinary-people economy is that there is no shit in it at all. Even its members who are still working are scared shitless that they won’t be in another month or two. And despite the happy talk we all hear from Obama (and Florida Gov. Crist) about how everything will be great again Real Soon Now, just help us pass/stop this essential/socialist piece of legislation, most of the people I know are running scared.

The lady at the liquor store I stopped at earlier this evening said sales are up because “people drink more when they’re depressed.”

I’m often more than a little depressed about money myself. Not recessed. Depressed.

But whoo! The official unemployment rate (which doesn’t count my wife, who has applied fruitlessly for over 200 jobs) is now below 10%!

I’d give a big, hearty cheer for that bit of good statistical news, except I’m not really, really drunk, which I’d have to be to think it was anything other than some sort of accounting error or wasn’t counting an awful lot of people who wish they had decent jobs, but don’t.

This essay was originally published as a comment here.

This entry was posted on Friday, February 5th, 2010 at 10:40 pm and is filed under Business, Humor, Politics. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. Both comments and pings are currently closed.